NASA has once again updated its assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4, and the news isn’t comforting. The probability of impact has climbed to 3.1%, making it the most dangerous asteroid ever recorded. This “city-killer” space rock now poses a higher risk than the infamous Apophis asteroid once did.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Impact Risk Continues to Rise
When scientists first spotted 2024 YR4 in December 2024, the odds of impact were just 1.2%. Since then, they have steadily increased, doubling to 2.3% earlier this month and now reaching a worrying 3.1%. This marks a historic milestone in planetary defense history.
According to Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, the probability sits at 2.8% in their calculations. However, both NASA and ESA agree this asteroid is a serious concern.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the energy released would be equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT. That’s 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. This level of destruction would be enough to wipe out an entire city.
Which Cities Are at Risk?
Scientists have projected the asteroid’s possible impact zone across eight highly populated cities. Among them are:
- Bogotá, Colombia
- Lagos, Nigeria
- Mumbai, India
- Chennai, India
Altogether, these areas house over 110 million people, meaning the human cost of an impact would be devastating.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, explained the level of destruction that could unfold. “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city,” he said.
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No Need for Panic—Yet
Despite the rising probability, scientists caution against widespread panic. Betts believes the impact odds could continue to climb before eventually dropping to zero.
“This is not a crisis at this point in time,” Moissl added. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
To refine the risk assessment, researchers will use the James Webb Space Telescope to gather more precise data on the asteroid’s size and trajectory. Its infrared instruments will analyze the heat emitted by the rock, providing crucial insights.
This information will be shared among NASA, ESA, and other space agencies to determine the best course of action. If necessary, planetary defense experts will explore ways to mitigate the threat, such as deflection strategies.
What Happens Next?
Scientists will continue tracking 2024 YR4’s movement, refining their calculations with every new observation. While the latest update is concerning, there’s still time to gather more data and prepare.
For now, the world watches and waits, hoping that history will repeat itself—where rising impact odds eventually fall back to zero.